Travel anxiety has been pounding steadily against your temples for a few hours when your turn finally comes. The grueling stage of the airport marathon begins—the security check. In a rush, you toss your medications into a transparent bag, immediately after fumble through your pockets, take off your shoes with one hand, and pull your laptop out of your backpack with the other to send it out of sight along with your most private data, while security pats down your calf. In the name of safety, you repeat to yourself, I am doing this in the name of safety. You can imagine all too vividly what could happen if the checks weren't strict enough.
Yet, it is precisely these vivid imaginations that can be one of the culprits behind probability neglect. When strong emotions shake our bodies, we tend to focus on negative possibilities and disregard the probability of our catastrophic visions being fulfilled (or not). Due to this neglect, people are often more frightened by threats that are new to them and difficult to control than by statistically more significant risks they might encounter in everyday life.
Imagination becomes our enemy at moments like this. Colorful images fuel fears of risk. Merchants, however, can rub their hands together. The amount people are willing to pay for insurance against terrorism-related damage exceeds what they would pay for insurance against losses caused by any events. Terrifying visions and heightened emotions push the consideration of probability into the background or banish it from our minds altogether.
According to experts, the public's reaction can also result in measures that prove counterproductive. Stressful and time-consuming airport security checks, for instance, may prompt some people to rely more on automobile travel, even though flying is a disproportionately safer mode of transportation. Due to fears, they may also avoid certain activities or alter their behavior completely to escape having to deal with stress. They cannot help themselves, even when they realize how low the risk actually is.
Therefore, if one of your friends gets stuck at the thought of such a threat, appealing to a consideration of probability will likely bear no fruit. Instead, try to divert their attention in a different direction. Perhaps toward the azure beaches of the destination. It must be said, however, that if they ultimately become one of those unfortunate souls who truly do not reach their destination, even the awareness of how rare their case is will likely be of no help to them.
Literature
Sunstein, C.R. (2003). Terrorism and Probability Neglect. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 26 (2/3), 121-136.
